<br> <br> .center[.vlarge[My Research Projects with Organisations] <br> Forecasting, machine learning & modelling <br> .vlarge[📁]] .sticker-float[] <!-- .sticker-left[] --> .bottom[ ### Bahman Rostami-Tabar (<svg aria-hidden="true" role="img" viewBox="0 0 512 512" style="height:1em;width:1em;vertical-align:-0.125em;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-size:inherit;fill:#1da1f2;overflow:visible;position:relative;"><path d="M459.37 151.716c.325 4.548.325 9.097.325 13.645 0 138.72-105.583 298.558-298.558 298.558-59.452 0-114.68-17.219-161.137-47.106 8.447.974 16.568 1.299 25.34 1.299 49.055 0 94.213-16.568 130.274-44.832-46.132-.975-84.792-31.188-98.112-72.772 6.498.974 12.995 1.624 19.818 1.624 9.421 0 18.843-1.3 27.614-3.573-48.081-9.747-84.143-51.98-84.143-102.985v-1.299c13.969 7.797 30.214 12.67 47.431 13.319-28.264-18.843-46.781-51.005-46.781-87.391 0-19.492 5.197-37.36 14.294-52.954 51.655 63.675 129.3 105.258 216.365 109.807-1.624-7.797-2.599-15.918-2.599-24.04 0-57.828 46.782-104.934 104.934-104.934 30.213 0 57.502 12.67 76.67 33.137 23.715-4.548 46.456-13.32 66.599-25.34-7.798 24.366-24.366 44.833-46.132 57.827 21.117-2.273 41.584-8.122 60.426-16.243-14.292 20.791-32.161 39.308-52.628 54.253z"/></svg>[@Bahman_R_T](https://twitter.com/Bahman_R_T)) <br> ### .remember[Website] [www.bahmanrt.com](https://www.bahmanrt.com/) ### .remember[Slides] [bahmanrt.com/talk/myresearch](https://www.bahmanrt.com/slides/myprojects.html) ] --- background-image: url("resources/hierarchy-left.jpeg") background-size: contain background-position: left class: middle .pull-right2[ ## Outline - Current Research Projects - Current Ph.D. Research Projects - Current MS.c. Research Projects - Past MS.c. Research Projects ] --- background-image: url("resources/hierarchy-left.jpeg") background-size: contain background-position: left class: middle .pull-right2[ ## Outline - .remember[Current Research Projects] - .graylight[Current Ph.D. Research Projects] - .graylight[Current MS.c. Research Projects] - .graylight[Past MS.c. Research Projects] ] --- **.strong-blue[Project title:]** Long-term forecasting for Critical Care in Wales **.strong-blue[Aim:]** To develop a forecasting model to generate daily admissions in 20 years' time for elective and emergency services of Critical Care in Wales. **.strong-blue[Methods:]** Time series forecasting, hierarchical time series, exponential smoothing, judgmental forecasting methods **.strong-blue[Organisation:]** NHS Wales Delivery Unit <img src="figure/nhs.png" width="100" style="vertical-align:middle"/> **.strong-blue[Collaborators:]** Jennifer Morgan, Victoria Sachser, Eduard Incze, Michael Ware, Craig Spencer **.strong-blue[Funding body:]** Health Foundation <img src="figure/hf.png" width="150"style="vertical-align:middle" /> --- **.strong-blue[Project title:]** Hierarchical and grouped time series forecasting of incidents in Wales **.strong-blue[Aim:]** To create innovative methodologies to forecast the count nature of incidents and admissions for each health board, priority and nature of incidents **.strong-blue[Organisation:]** Welsh Ambulance Service Trust (WAST) <img src="figure/WASTLogoBig2.png" width="200"style="vertical-align:middle"/> **.strong-blue[Collaborators:]** [Prof. Rob Hyndman, Monash University, Australia](https://robjhyndman.com/) **.strong-blue[Funding body:]** Cardiff Business School <img src="resources/carbs-white-background.jpg" width="200" style="vertical-align:middle"/> --- **.strong-blue[Project title:]** Forecasting and inventory optimisation of vaccine distribution supply chain in Africa **.strong-blue[Aim:]** To i) develop machine learning models to forecast vaccine doses admistrated, used and wasted ii) estimate return on investement of vaccines, iii) model zero-dose vaccines in Africa **.strong-blue[Organisation:]** John Snow, Inc (JSI) <img src="figure/jsi.png" width="100"style="vertical-align:middle"/> **.strong-blue[Collaborators:]** [Prof. Zied Babai, Kedge Business School, France](https://student.kedge.edu/faculty-directory/mohamed-zied-babai) **.strong-blue[Funding body:]** None --- **.strong-blue[Project title:]** Supply chain of medical items in conflict zones **.strong-blue[Aim:]** To develop an integrated forecasting and inventory optimisation tool for medical items with obsolescence **.strong-blue[Organisation:]** International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) <img src="figure/ICRC.jpg" width="200"style="vertical-align:middle"/> **.strong-blue[Collaborators:]** [Zied Babai](https://robjhyndman.com/) **.strong-blue[Funding body:]** Cardiff Business School <img src="resources/carbs-white-background.jpg" width="200" style="vertical-align:middle"/> --- **.strong-blue[Project title:]** Probabilistic forecasting for community and in-patient mental health services **.strong-blue[Aim:]** To develop machine learning models to accurately forecast demand of mental health services considering the impact of Covid-19 **.strong-blue[Organisation:]** Surrey and Borders Partnership NHS Foundation Trust <img src="figure/sbp.png" width="200"style="vertical-align:middle"/> **.strong-blue[Collaborators:]** [Prof. Pierre Pinson, Imperial College London](https://pierrepinson.com/) **.strong-blue[Funding body:]** None --- background-image: url("resources/hierarchy-left.jpeg") background-size: contain background-position: left class: middle .pull-right2[ ## Outline - .graylight[Current Research Projects] - .remember[Current Ph.D. Research Projects] - .graylight[Current MS.c. Research Projects] - .graylight[Past MS.c. Research Projects] ] --- **.strong-blue[Project title:]** Forecasting improvements for better reproductive health and family planning operations in global health supply chains **.strong-blue[Aim:]** To create an innovative machine learning approach in the presence of low-quality data considering a hierarchical structure of the proble and inventory optimisation through an appropriate determination of the underlying loss function. **.strong-blue[Organisation:]** United States Agency for International Development <img src="figure/usaid.png" width="200" style="vertical-align:middle"/> **.strong-blue[Collaborators:]** Mr. Harsha Charma (Ph.D. student), Bahman Rostami-Tabar (Lead), Aris Syntetos, Federico Liberatore, Mr. Glenn Milano **.strong-blue[Funding body:]** ESRC Collaborative Studentship --- **.strong-blue[Project title:]** Improving unscheduled planning in urgent and emergency care: Using predictive modeling to deliver quality care **.strong-blue[Aim:]** To improve the efficiency of unplanned care by identifying sources of uncertainty, building reliable statistical and machine learning models and incorporate them in the resource planning. **.strong-blue[Organisation:]** Welsh Ambulance Service Trust (WAST) <img src="figure/WASTLogoBig2.png" width="400" style="vertical-align:middle" /> **.strong-blue[Collaborators:]** Mr. Mingzhe Shi (Ph.D. student), Bahman Rostami-Tabar (Lead), Daniel Gartner **.strong-blue[Funding body:]** Cardiff Business School Scholarship <img src="resources/carbs-white-background.jpg" width="200" style="vertical-align:middle"/> --- **.strong-blue[Project title:]** Patient flow forecasting and operational efficiency simulation based on the Major Trauma Network (MTN) in South Wales **.strong-blue[Aim:]** To evaluate the operational performance of introducing the major trauma network and develop machine learning models to forecast length of stay and mortality rates. **.strong-blue[Organisation:]** South Wales Trauma Network Wales <img src="figure/swtn.jpeg" width="300"/style="vertical-align:middle"> **.strong-blue[Collaborators:]** Mr. Zihao Wang (Ph.D. student), Bahman Rostami-Tabar (Lead), Jane Haider, Mohammad Naim **.strong-blue[Funding body:]** Self- Funded --- **.strong-blue[Project title:]** Forecast and optimization of container port carbon emission based on combined models **.strong-blue[Aim:]** To develop models to accurately estimate and predict port carbon emissions to allocate resources, formulate future emission reduction plans and verify the effects of different schemes **.strong-blue[Organisation:]** None **.strong-blue[Collaborators:]** Mr. Ruikai Sun (Ph.D. student), Bahman Rostami-Tabar (co-Lead), Wessam Abouarghoub (co-Lead), Emrah Demir **.strong-blue[Funding body:]** Chinese Council Scholarship --- background-image: url("resources/hierarchy-left.jpeg") background-size: contain background-position: left class: middle .pull-right2[ ## Outline - .graylight[Current Research Projects] - .graylight[Current Ph.D. Research Projects] - .remember[Current MS.c. Research Projects] - .graylight[Past MS.c. Research Projects] ] --- ## Current MS.c. Research Projects * Developing and applying forecasts and risk indentification models at Shropshire Council with the Early Help function, **Shropshire Council, Local Government** * All Wales Ambulance Station Database, **Welsh Ambulance Services NHS Trust** * Forecasting 999 calls and estimate time of arrival for an ambulance, **Welsh Ambulance Services NHS Trust** * Exploring the use and applicability of QALYs (Quality-Adjusted Life Year) and DALYs (Disability-Adjusted Life Year) in calculating the return on investment of increasing/decreasing vaccine buffer stocks/ordering quantities in global health immunization programmes, **John Snow, Inc.** --- background-image: url("resources/hierarchy-left.jpeg") background-size: contain background-position: left class: middle .pull-right2[ ## Outline - .graylight[Current Research Projects] - .graylight[Current Ph.D. Research Projects] - .graylight[Current MS.c. Research Projects] - .remember[Past MS.c. Research Projects] ] --- ## Past MS.c. Research Projects (2019-2021) * Long Range Forecasting Best Practice, **ViiV Healthcare** * Forecasting with special events, **Welsh Ambulance Services NHS Trust** * Forecasting hourly calls, **Welsh Ambulance Services NHS Trust** * Exploring the effect of exogenous variables in ED forecasting, **NHS Wales Delivery Unit** * Patient flow modelling in Major Trauma Network (MTN) Wales, **Cardiff and Vale University LHB** * Investigating specialist rehabilitation pathway efficiency in Major Trauma Network (MTN) Wales, **Cardiff and Vale University LHB** * Using Demand and Capacity to identify current and future population health needs for a GP Practice, **NHS Wales Delivery Unit**