Forecasting for Social Good

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.center[.title[Forecasting for Social Good (FSG)  📈]]
.sticker-float[![fable](resources/carbs-white-background.jpg)]

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## Bahman Rostami-Tabar (<svg style="height:0.8em;top:.04em;position:relative;fill:#1da1f2;" viewBox="0 0 512 512"><path d="M459.37 151.716c.325 4.548.325 9.097.325 13.645 0 138.72-105.583 298.558-298.558 298.558-59.452 0-114.68-17.219-161.137-47.106 8.447.974 16.568 1.299 25.34 1.299 49.055 0 94.213-16.568 130.274-44.832-46.132-.975-84.792-31.188-98.112-72.772 6.498.974 12.995 1.624 19.818 1.624 9.421 0 18.843-1.3 27.614-3.573-48.081-9.747-84.143-51.98-84.143-102.985v-1.299c13.969 7.797 30.214 12.67 47.431 13.319-28.264-18.843-46.781-51.005-46.781-87.391 0-19.492 5.197-37.36 14.294-52.954 51.655 63.675 129.3 105.258 216.365 109.807-1.624-7.797-2.599-15.918-2.599-24.04 0-57.828 46.782-104.934 104.934-104.934 30.213 0 57.502 12.67 76.67 33.137 23.715-4.548 46.456-13.32 66.599-25.34-7.798 24.366-24.366 44.833-46.132 57.827 21.117-2.273 41.584-8.122 60.426-16.243-14.292 20.791-32.161 39.308-52.628 54.253z"/></svg>[@Bahman_R_T](https://twitter.com/Bahman_R_T)) <br>
## Website [www.bahmanrt.com](https://www.bahmanrt.com/)

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## What is Forecasting for Social Good?

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##  What is Forecasting for Social Good?
### An annual workshop: [www.f4sg.org](www.f4sg.org)

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<iframe src="https://www.f4sg.org/" width="100%" height="500px"></iframe>
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##  What is Forecasting for Social Good?
### A Research Grant

.center[
<iframe src="https://forecasters.org/programs/research-awards/forecasting-for-social-good-research-grant//" width="100%" height="500px"></iframe>
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##  What is Forecasting for Social Good?

### A Research Network

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<iframe src="https://fsgrn.netlify.app/" width="100%" height="500px"></iframe>
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##  Forecasting for Social Good

### Open access for now

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<img src="figure/lomsac/fsg-ijf.png" width="70%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
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.title[What is meant by FSG?]

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.title[What attributes make a forecasting process aligned with FSG?]

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## Why forecasting?

- You do not forecast for the .remember[sake of forecasting].

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- You do it because you want to base .remember[decisions] on it.

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- Ideally, make .remember[better decisions] in the .remember[light of forecast].

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## Make better decisions to ...

.pull-left[

- Increase profit

- Increase economic growth

- Increase resource utilisation

- Reduce Co2 emissions

- To not blow up the business

- ...
]

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>.title[With better decisions, we make something to .remember[THRIVE].]

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.pull-right[.title[Doughnut time]]

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.pull-right[.title[Doughnut theory]]

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>‘‘Instead of economies that need to grow, whether or not they make us thrive, we need economies that make us .remember[THRIVE], whether or not they grow’’. -- Raworth (2017)

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.footnote[Raworth, K. (2017). Doughnut economics: seven ways to think like a 21st century economist. Chelsea Green Publishing.]

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- The theory combines the concept of .remember[**social foundation**] with that of the .remember[**ecological ceiling**] in a single framework.

- .remember[**Social foundation:**] to ensure that no one falls short on life’s essentials.

- .remember[**Ecological ceiling:**] ensure we do not overshoot the planet’s capacity for critical life-supporting systems.

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## Where do we want to be?

Between the .remember[social foundation] and the .remember[ecological ceiling] lies a space in which it is possible to .remember[meet the needs of all people] within the .remember[means of the living planet] — **an ecologically safe and socially just space in which humanity can .remember[THRIVE]**.
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## Inform decisions that brings us into the space

- The forecasting and the decision-making process needs to support all activities that bring us into the Doughnut space — an environmentally safe and socially just space — in which humanity thrives.

- This is where forecasting plays a role: .remember[inform those decisions].
]

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## FSG process

<img src="figure/lomsac/fig_process.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

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## Attributes of FSG

<img src="figure/lomsac/FSG_attr2.png" width="50%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

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## Are there research opprtunities?
### FSG research maturity framework

<img src="figure/lomsac/quad.png" width="45%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

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## [Other similar initiatives (Check Table 1)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.11669)

<iframe src="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207021000510?casa_token=GqG5akmbeiwAAAAA:7h9GnmN6aoaUz5O8l5FOfDIk4c_QaEghh0wH0nkQS7udbNWEnCP0TmFA-hMjJa3jlnmWjKfn" width="100%" height="500px"></iframe>

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**The purpose of FSG initiative is to:**

- .remember[Increase awareness and interest] from academics and practitioners in the potential impact of FSG;

- .remember[Encourage] interested academics and practitioners .remember[to engage] in the FSG agenda;

- .remember[Inspire] the development of new forecasting methodologies tailored to social good applications.

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## The intention of FSG is to:

- .large[.remember[Motivate engagement] with .remember[important issues] that .remember[our world and society face], an not only focus on profit and methodological advancement;]

- .large[Allow best (forecasting) practices to emerge]

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>.title[Qualifying what constitutes FSG should permit academics and practitioners to appreciate the .remember[opportunity cost of not engaging with its scalable agenda].]

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## Democratising forecasting

.vlarge[Free workshops on educating people on forecasting]

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.vlarge[ Workshop 1: Forecasting for managers]

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.vlarge[ Workshop 2: Forecasting for forecasters (students, lecturerer, etc)]

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.vlarge[ Send me an email if you want to host a workshop in your country:  .blue[rostami-tabarb@cardiff.ac.uk]]

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.hand-large[Thank you]

## Resources:

### [Forecasting for Social Good conference](https://www.f4sg.org/)
### [Forecasting for Social Good Reseqarch Grant](https://forecasters.org/programs/research-awards/forecasting-for-social-good-research-grant/#:~:text=The%20Forecasting%20for%20Social%20Good,good%20practices%20and%20drive%20developments.)
### [Forecasting for Social Good Paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.11669)
### [Democratising Forecasting](https://forecasters.org/blog/2018/07/10/new-iif-workshop-initiative-democratizing-forecasting/)

## <svg style="height:0.8em;top:.04em;position:relative;fill:white;" viewBox="0 0 512 512"><path d="M459.37 151.716c.325 4.548.325 9.097.325 13.645 0 138.72-105.583 298.558-298.558 298.558-59.452 0-114.68-17.219-161.137-47.106 8.447.974 16.568 1.299 25.34 1.299 49.055 0 94.213-16.568 130.274-44.832-46.132-.975-84.792-31.188-98.112-72.772 6.498.974 12.995 1.624 19.818 1.624 9.421 0 18.843-1.3 27.614-3.573-48.081-9.747-84.143-51.98-84.143-102.985v-1.299c13.969 7.797 30.214 12.67 47.431 13.319-28.264-18.843-46.781-51.005-46.781-87.391 0-19.492 5.197-37.36 14.294-52.954 51.655 63.675 129.3 105.258 216.365 109.807-1.624-7.797-2.599-15.918-2.599-24.04 0-57.828 46.782-104.934 104.934-104.934 30.213 0 57.502 12.67 76.67 33.137 23.715-4.548 46.456-13.32 66.599-25.34-7.798 24.366-24.366 44.833-46.132 57.827 21.117-2.273 41.584-8.122 60.426-16.243-14.292 20.791-32.161 39.308-52.628 54.253z"/></svg> Say hello: [@Bahman_R_T](https://twitter.com/Bahman_R_T)